ATHENS/QAMISHLI, Syria: Since 2022, senior Syrian and Turkish officers have periodically met in Moscow for talks mediated by Russia. However these conferences have didn’t end in a thaw of their icy relations.
It’s a completely different matter now, nevertheless, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan asserting his need to revive formal ties along with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad.
He stated earlier this month that he may invite Assad to Turkiye “at any second,” to which the Syrian chief responded that any assembly would depend upon the “content material.”
Ankara and Damascus severed diplomatic ties in 2011 following the eruption of Syria’s civil battle. Relations have remained hostile ever since, significantly as Turkiye continues to help armed teams resisting the Assad regime.
What, then, is the motivation for altering course now? And what are the doubtless penalties of Turkish-Syrian normalization of ties?
Syrian author and political researcher Shoresh Darwish believes President Erdogan is pursuing normalization for 2 causes. “The primary is preparation for the opportunity of the arrival of a brand new American administration led by Donald Trump, which suggests the opportunity of a return to the coverage of (a US) withdrawal from Syria,” he instructed Arab Information.
“Erdogan will due to this fact must cooperate with Assad and Russia.”
The second motive, Darwish says, is Erdogan’s need to get nearer to Syrian regime ally Russia after Turkiye’s drift towards the US following the outbreak of battle in Ukraine. Certainly, as a NATO member state, the battle has sophisticated Turkiye’s usually balanced method to its ties with Washington and Moscow.
“Ankara’s cooperation with Moscow is tough by way of the Ukrainian difficulty,” stated Darwish. “Because of the numerous Western interference on this difficulty, their cooperation in Syria represents a gathering level by way of which Erdogan needs to spotlight his friendship with Putin and Moscow’s pursuits within the Center East.”
These in Syria’s opposition-held northwest, which is backed by Turkiye, see an Ankara-Damascus rapprochement as a betrayal.
Throughout certainly one of a number of protests in Idlib for the reason that starting of July, demonstrators held indicators in Arabic that learn: “If you wish to get nearer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of historical past is upon you.”
Abdulkarim Omar, a political activist from Idlib, instructed Arab Information: “Western Syria, Idlib, the Aleppo countryside, and all areas belonging to the opposition utterly reject this conduct as a result of it’s only within the curiosity of the Syrian regime.
“The Syrian individuals got here out 13 years in the past and rose up of their revolution demanding freedom, dignity, and the constructing of a civil, democratic state for all Syrians. This could solely be achieved by overthrowing the tyrannical Syrian regime represented by Bashar Assad. They nonetheless cling to this precept and these slogans and can’t abandon them.”
These dwelling in areas managed by the Kurdish-led and US-backed Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, or AANES, which holds a lot of Syria’s territory east of the Euphrates River, are additionally cautious of the implications of normalization.
“There are fears among the many inhabitants that reconciliation could also be a prelude to punishing the Syrian Kurds for his or her political selections,” stated Omar.
Incursions into Syria from 2016 to 2019 noticed Turkiye take management of a number of cities, a lot of which had been beforehand beneath the management of the AANES.
Turkiye’s justification for its 2018 and 2019 incursions and continued presence on Syrian territory was its goal to determine a “secure zone” between itself and the armed forces of the AANES — the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Turkiye views the SDF as a Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Staff’ Get together, or PKK, a gaggle that has been in battle with the Turkish state for the reason that Eighties.
“Naturally, the Syrian Kurds know that they are going to be a part of any deal that Erdogan needs to conclude with Assad,” stated Darwish. “This difficulty unnerves the Syrian Kurds, who see Turkiye as able to do something to hurt them and their expertise in self-administration.”
Darwish says the Syrian Kurds would settle for reconciliation on three circumstances. First they’d wish to see Turkiye take away its troops from Afrin and Ras Al-Ain. Second, an finish to Turkish strikes in opposition to AANES areas. And third, a assure from the Assad regime “that the Syrian Kurds will get pleasure from their nationwide, cultural, and administrative rights.”
However simply how doubtless is a rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus? Not very, in keeping with battle analyst and UNHRC delegate Thoreau Redcrow. “I discover the prospects of an Erdogan and Assad detente most unlikely,” he instructed Arab Information.
“Traditionally, Turkiye’s concepts of ‘normalization’ with Syria quantity to a coverage of one-way affect for Ankara’s profit. On this association, Turkiye continues to occupy Hatay (Liwa Iskenderun), which they seized from Syria in 1938, and make navy incursion calls for on their sovereignty, like with the Adana Settlement in 1998, however give nothing in return.”
Assad has made it clear in public statements {that a} assembly between him and Erdogan would solely happen on the situation of a Turkish withdrawal from Syrian territory. Redcrow believes Turkiye has no intention of leaving.
“I can not see Damascus being excited about being manipulated for a photo-op,” he stated. “The Syrian authorities is way extra prideful than among the different regional actors who’re joyful to be certainly one of Turkiye’s ‘neo-Ottoman vilayets.’”
Erdogan could also be trying to capitalize on the pattern towards normalization amongst Arab international locations, which started in earnest with Syria’s reinstatement into the Arab league final yr. European states and the US, nevertheless, stay divided.
“Whereas Germany, France, Italy, and the UK particularly are extra targeted on how Turkiye can management the gateway into Europe and act as a ‘continental bouncer’ for refugees from the Center East and Western Asia, the US is extra targeted on denying Russia and Iran full entry to all of Syria once more for strategic causes, like Mediterranean Sea entry and the ‘Shiite land bridge’ from Tehran to Beirut,” stated Redcrow.
“The present established order is way extra useful to Washington than any reconciliation could be, as it could additionally endanger the northeast parts of Syria, the place the US navy is embedded with their most dependable navy companions in opposition to Daesh within the SDF. So, Turkiye wouldn’t be given any form of inexperienced mild to put American pursuits in danger.”
The US Home of Representatives in February handed the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023, which prohibits any normalization with Assad. In a put up on the social media platform X on July 12, the invoice’s writer, Rep. Joe Wilson, voiced his disappointment with Erdogan’s requires normalization, likening it to “normalizing with dying itself.”
Although there could also be little probability of reconciliation succeeding at this level, the roughly 3.18 million Syrian refugees dwelling in Turkiye view even rumors of normalization with worry and dread.
“Individuals are very afraid,” Amal Hayat, a Syrian mom of 5 dwelling in southeastern Turkiye, instructed Arab Information. “For the reason that rumors (of reconciliation) began, many individuals don’t even depart their houses. Even when they’re overwhelmed by their bosses at work, they’re afraid to say something for worry of being deported.”
Turkish authorities deported greater than 57,000 Syrians in 2023, in keeping with Human Rights Watch.
“A compelled return would have an effect on us lots,” stated Hayat. “For instance, if a lady returns to Syria along with her household, her husband could also be arrested by the regime. Or if a person will get deported again to Syria and his spouse and youngsters keep in Turkiye, how will they handle? It’s tough. Right here, our children can examine. They’ve stability and security.”
The worry of deportation has been compounded by waves of violence in opposition to Syrian refugees which swept Turkiye’s south in latest weeks. On June 30, residents of central Turkiye’s Kayseri province attacked Syrians and their property.
Anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkiye is partially as a consequence of financial points, the place Turks see underpaid and even unpaid Syrians as a risk to their prospects of employment.
“The Turks are very joyful for us to return dwelling,” stated Hayat. “For them, it’s not quickly sufficient. We’re all dwelling beneath a heightened stage of stress. We’re simply praying that (Assad and Erdogan) don’t reconcile.”
